Service Plays Saturday 05/23/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[DonWallace]

Don Wallace

[ Bonus Play ] Lakers +3.5 over Denver

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

May 23, 2009

Hondo drew a blank with the formerly hot Bucs last night, which caused the bankroll to tumble to a still beefy 495 boswells.

Tonight, he'll go back to the big bad Brew Crew -- 10 units on Looper to carry the load against the Twins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist Bonus Play

(961) NEW YORK METS
(962) BOSTON RED SOX
Take "Over"

Getting out of Dodger stadium should help the Mets offense, especially here in hitter-friendly Fenway. This NY offense is tops in the NL in batting, second in OBP and first in runs. They gain a DH here, too. Neither starter has outstanding numbers: NY's Mike Pelfrey has a 4.61 ERA in the NL and walks a few too many batters (17 in 41 innings), something patient Boston will take advantage of to clog the bases. Red Sox righty Josh Beckett hasn't been an ace, with a 5.85 ERA, walking 23 in 47 innings. Look for an offensive show in Fenway, play the Mets/Red Sox over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) L.A. Lakers (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) at (2) Denver (9-3 SU, 12-0 ATS)

The Nuggets, who earned a split in Los Angeles to steal home-court advantage and remain perfect against the number in the playoffs, return to the Pepsi Center for Game 3 of the best-of-7 Western Conference finals against the Lakers.

Denver trailed by 14 points in the second quarter Thursday before rallying within one point by halftime, then hung with Los Angeles the rest of the way and claimed a 106-103 victory as a 5½-point road underdog. Carmelo Anthony scored 34 points – his fifth straight game with at least 30 points – and hit 10 of 14 free throws while pulling downd nine rebounds. Chauncey Billups went 13 of 16 from the foul line and finished with 27 points, and the Nuggets also got a huge boost from reserve Linas Kleiza (16 points, eight rebounds), who hit 4 of 7 three-pointers.

Los Angeles got 32 points from Kobe Bryant in the Game 2 defeat while Trevor Ariza added 20 points and Pau Gasol racked up 17 points and 17 rebounds. But the Nuggets were able to fend off the Lakers by hitting 17 straight free throws before a Billups miss in the waning seconds. Denver finished 29 of 37 from the charity stripe and L.A. made 27 of 35.

Denver had lost 11 straight playoff games to the Lakers before breaking through Thursday, and by cashing in both contests at Staples Center, the Nuggets are 3-3 ATS (2-4 SU) against Los Angeles this year. However, going back a couple of seasons, the Lakers are still 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Denver is on a 16-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center and is 39-8 SU (29-17-1 ATS) on the year at home. That includes a 6-0 SU and ATS mark in the playoffs, with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points per game (113-95.5). Los Angeles, meanwhile, is 31-15 SU (25-21 ATS) on the highway this season but 2-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs, including double-digit losses in Games 4 and 6 at Houston in the conference semifinals

The Nuggets are 23-6 SU in their last 29 overall, and along with their perfect playoff ATS mark, they are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 22-6 overall, 6-0 as a playoff chalk, 10-1 overall laying points and 7-1 against the Pacific Division. The lone negative for Denver is its 0-4 ATS mark as a playoff favorite of less than five points.

The Lakers are on ATS upswings of 20-7-2 as a road pup, 5-0 following a SU loss and 7-3 after a non-cover, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-7 after putting up 100 or more points, 1-5 against the Northwest Division, 3-7 on the highway and 3-7 in the conference finals.

The over for Denver is on a 10-4 run at home, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven as a favorite of less than five points. For Los Angeles, the under is on surges of 10-2 overall (6-0 in the last six), 4-1 on the road, 7-0 in the conference finals and 15-2 after a SU loss.

Finally, with the first two games of this series staying low, the under is now 8-1 in the last nine clashes between these two teams, with the last five meetings in Denver staying under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER


MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

INTERLEAGUE

Philadelphia (23-17) at N.Y. Yankees (24-18)

The surging Yankees send Andy Pettitte (4-1, 4.18 ERA) to the mound as they continue a weekend interleague series against the Phillies, who will counter with young lefty J.A. Happ (2-0, 2.49 ERA), who is slated to make his first start of the season.

Philadelphia ended New York’s nine-game winning streak with a 7-3 victory Friday night. Nonetheless, the Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight inside the new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, who were mired in funks of 2-7 overall and 0-5 at home prior to their recent run, have cashed in eight of nine games as a favorite. They’re also on positive rolls of 37-19 at home, 54-21 when hosting N.L. opponents, 10-4 against lefty starters, 54-21 at home versus left-handers and 20-8 in the second game of a series.

Philadelphia is 7-1 on its current 10-game road swing and it is a major league-best 15-5 on the highway this season, having scored 57 runs during its current trip. The defending champs are on additional streaks of 24-9 on the road dating to 2008, 19-7 against left-handed starters, 6-1 on the road against southpaws, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-3 as a road ‘dog and 39-16 against teams with a winning record, but they have dropped 18 of their last 26 interleague road contests.

These teams last met in 2006, with the Yankees taking two of three in Philadelphia, and New York has won four of the last six clashes overall, all in Philly.

Happ has made 12 relief appearances this season, giving up six earned runs and 14 hits in 21 2/3 innings, including allowing just one run in 10 1/3 innings on the road, where he’s 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA. Last year, Happ started four games and went 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in those contests, with Philadelphia winning all four games.

Pettitte is coming off a shaky outing against the Twins in which the veteran gave up four runs on 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings, but held on for a 7-6 victory. New York is 7-2 in Pettitte’s last nine starts overall, 71-33 in his last 104 in the Bronx and 15-5 in his last 20 against N.L. East foes. This season, Pettitte is 2-0 at home despite a 5.68 ERA. He’s also 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career regular-season starts against the Phillies, with New York going 4-2 (2-0 at home).

The under is 4-0 in Happ’s last four starts, 37-17-1 in Pettitte’s last 55 outings overall and 9-1-1 in Pettitte’s last 11 interleague contests.

Philadelphia carries “over” streaks of 6-3-1 overall, 14-5-1 on the highway, 9-4 as an underdog, 6-3 in interleague road games, 6-1 on Saturday, 4-1 versus lefty starters and 12-6-1 against winning teams. The over is also 10-4-2 in New York’s last 16 at the new stadium (4-1 last five) and 4-0-1 in its last five on Saturday, but the Yanks’ last five interleague games have stayed low. Finally, the under is 5-1 in the last six Phillies-Yankees clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES


N.Y. Mets (22-19) at Boston (25-17)

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (4-2, 5.85) tries for his third straight win when he matches up against the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 4.61) in the middle game of a weekend series at Fenway Park.

Before scoring Friday’s 5-3 victory in Boston, New York had dropped four straight games while scoring a total of six runs in the process, this after tallying 24 runs during a three-game winning streak in San Francisco last weekend. The Mets, who are nearing the end of a 10-game road trip, preceded their four-game slide with an 11-2 overall run and a five-game road winning streak.

Boston has won three of its last four, allowing a total of 10 runs in that span. Additionally, Terry Francona’s pitching staff has given up three runs or fewer in five of its last six games overall and six of its last eight at home.

The Red Sox swept a three-game home series from the Mets in the most recent matchup back in 2006, with a scoring differential of 23-8. Going back to 1999, the home team is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head battles, with New York losing four of its last five visits to Fenway Park.

The Mets are on upticks of 6-1 in interleague roadies and 6-1 on Saturday. Meanwhile, Boston is riding positive runs of 22-11 overall, 80-34 at Fenway Park, 52-17 in interleague play, 6-1 on Saturday, 43-13 when hosting N.L. squads and 26-6 against the N.L. East.

Pelfrey has delivered three straight quality starts and has given up three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts. However, in his most recent outing last Sunday, he got no run support in a 2-0 loss at the Giants, allowing both runs in six innings. Prior to that setback, New York had won four straight games behind Pelfrey while tallying 26 runs.

Including Sunday’s loss at San Francisco, Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 4.96 ERA in three road starts this season, and this is his first career start against the Red Sox.

Beckett is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts, all Red Sox wins, including last Saturday’s 5-3 triumph at Seattle, in which the veteran right-hander yielded all three runs (two earned) in seven innings. With Beckett pitching, the BoSox are on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on Saturday and 10-3 in interleague action. Also, Boston has won all four of Becket’s home starts this year, despite the Texan’s beefy 5.62 ERA.

Going back to his days with the Marlins, Beckett has faced New York 13 times, going 6-2 with a 2.50 ERA, including a 10-2 victory with Boston at Fenway Park back in 2006. In fact, the Mets are 1-8 the last nine times they’ve faced Beckett.

The under is on streaks of 6-1-1 for Boston overall, 6-1-1 for Boston against the National League and 9-2-2 in this periodic rivalry. However, the Mets are on “over” stretches of 9-5-1 overall, 4-1-1 on Saturday and 19-8-2 in interleague road games. Additionally, Beckett’s last four starts against the Mets have topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Underground Sports Connection

Saturday

200* Oakland A's

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

RatedPicks

NBA -
Nuggets -3.5
Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 212

MLB -
Phillies/Yankess OVER 11
Texas Rangers RL -1.5 +130

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

B LANG:

Saturday ...
15 Dime Nuggets (first half)

15 Dime Nuggets

15 Dime Lakers/Nuggets Under

5 Dime Rangers

5 Dime Giants



Free pick - Brewers (See daily video for your analysis on this game)


Damn... I was really liking Denver at home today... Fvckin Langer now has me considering a no play on it...LOL.. ##)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Nuggets
Royals
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kelso
Nuggets 10 units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI


Eastern Conference Finals
Game 3, best-of-7
Pittsburgh vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL


Western Conference Finals
Game 3, best-of-7
DENVER 107, L.A. Lakers 104

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz Bonus Plays

Pirates
Red Sox
Reds

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
11 wins -2 losses last 13 free picks

Sat - Ariz D'Backs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL

LA Lakers at Denver
The Nuggets travel home after an upset win in Game Two and look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Denver is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Denver favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2).

Game 509-510: LA Lakers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 126.024; Denver 131.678
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 5 1/2; 213 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games, while the Pirates are just 3-16 in their last 19 interleague road games versus a left-handed starter. Chicago is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130).

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.180; San Diego (Geer) 14.200
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 953-954: Kansas City at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.850; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.450
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under

Game 955-956: Texas at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 17.364; Houston (Moehler) 15.638
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.695; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.067
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 11
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Over

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.193; White Sox (Richard) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Over

Game 961-962: NY Mets at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.822; Boston (Beckett) 16.976
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Under

Game 963-964: Baltimore at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Uehara) 15.122; Washington (Detwiler) 13.897
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Over

Game 965-966: Colorado at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 15.142; Detroit (Galarraga) 16.017
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 967-968: Milwaukee at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 16.636; Minnesota (Swarzak) 14.906
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under

Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.745; Florida (West) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 971-972: Toronto at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Janssen) 15.531; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.435
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Under

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.464; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.950
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under

Game 975-976: Arizona at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.105; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.786
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-160); Over

Game 977-978: LA Angels at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.371; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.802
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 979-980: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.445; Seattle (Olson) 13.904
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Pittsburgh at Carolina
The Penguins come off a 7-4 win in Game Two and look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is just 3-10 in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or more goals in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105).

Game 11-12: Pittsburgh at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.630; Carolina 13.131
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under

 

[TheIronHorse]

Daily Power Ratings- NBA

<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="96%"><tbody><tr><td class="freepickwhite" width="68%">DailyPowerRatings</td> <td rowspan="4" align="right" valign="top" width="32%">

</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="freepickwhite1">Saturday, May 23rd</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5* Star - 9+ Point Differential from Point Spread (Highest-Rated 3 Unit Play)
4* Star - 7 to 8 Point Differential (2 Unit Play)
3* Star - 5 to 6 Point Differential (1 Unit Play)
2* Star - 3 to 4 Point Differential (Slight Edge)
1* Star - 0 to 2 Point Differential (No Play Recommended) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td align="right" valign="top" width="32%"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> <table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="99%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="26%" height="30">Team
(Game*)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="23%">Game Rating
(Point Differential)</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="10%">Vegas
Line </td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="9%">Our
Line</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="8%">Power
Rating</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="8%">Series</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="9%">Home/
Away</td> <td class="whitetext4" align="center" bgcolor="#000000" valign="top" width="7%">Rest/
Play</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (509) LA Lakers</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#719e9f">2* Star (+3)</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">0</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-2</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="brdbotright" bgcolor="#ffffff" height="28"> (510) Denver</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-4</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">2</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-1</td> <td class="brdbotright" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-3</td> <td class="brdbot" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-2</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="8" class="brdbot" bgcolor="#e6e6e6" height="6"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table></td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="freepickwhite1">Today's Play:</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">2* LA Lakers (+4) Slight Edge, should be +1 Point Dogs</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[brady1983]

Larry Ness Saturday (More to come)

Larry's Las Vegas Insider - MLB

LA Angels


Larry's Weekend Wipeout Winner - MLB

Braves

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

charlie

nba & mlb. lakers+4 & angels @ dodgers under 8 runs. (500*).
nba. lakers @ denver over 211 (30*)
mlb. milwaukee-120 (20*)
mlb. kansas city+160 (20*)
mlb. dodgers-130 (10*)
mlb. seattle-125 (10*) Bonus Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux Sports

3 units on LA Lakers +3.5

Free Pick LA & Denver Over 211